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SEMCOG's analysis of future demographics trends in the region. Provides insight into future change patterns in the region's school-age population.
1001 Woodward Avenue, Suite 1400 • Detroit, MI 48226 • (313) 961-4266 • firstname.lastname@example.org • www.semcog.org September 2012 SEMCOG 2040 Forecast, Population by Age Group by School District In April 2012, SEMCOG released its 2040 Forecast, and subsequently released several reports highlighting the changing demographic patterns in the region. The reports drew attention to the fact that our senior population will expand significantly in the coming decades due to the aging of the baby boomers. This report continues SEMCOG’s analysis of future demographic trends in the region. It provides forecast data by eight age groups – pre-school population (0-4), school-age population (5-17), college-bound (18-24), working-age (25-34 and 35-59), pre-seniors (60-64), and seniors (65-74, and 75+) for all school districts in Southeast Michigan. Particularly, it provides insight into future change patterns in the region’s school-age population. Key demographic trends affecting public schools Southeast Michigan, along with the nation, faces an aging baby boomer population, whose influence on demographic trends continues to affect various age groups (Figure 1). While the baby boomers themselves are driving the dramatic increases in senior age groups, the share of working-age population is declining in the coming decades. Since this group also includes the prime childbearing-age women, it is reasonable to expect a continued decrease in youth population in the next few decades. Figure 1 Population change by age groups, Southeast Michigan, 2010-2040 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 0-4 5-17 18-24 25-59 60-64 65+ 2 – SEMCOG 2040 Forecast – Population by Age Group by School District Southeast Michigan’s youth – Past, present, and future In just 10 years, Southeast Michigan will have 112,000 (or 13 percent), fewer school- age children (ages 5-17) in its seven intermediate school districts (ISDs). Beyond 2020, the rate of decline in this age group will likely slow down significantly until 2030, at which point there will be a slight rebound in the trend. By 2040, there will be approximately 713,000 school-aged children in all school districts combined in the region – a greater than 15 percent decrease over the current size (Figure 2). Figure 2 Region’s school district population forecast, age 5 to 17, 2010-2040 Two primary factors determine the change in school-age population – the number of children born and migration. Figure 3 shows the fluctuation of school-age population in Southeast Michigan driven by those factors. School age population declined between 1980 and 1990, as the last baby boomers passed through this age group in the early 1980s, and more people moved out of the region. A rebound was witnessed in the 1990s as a result of the “baby boom echo” – a larger number of childbearing women and higher birth rates around 1990. Meanwhile, the healthy economy, led by the auto industry, attracted more people to the region. That trend has changed in the first decade of the 21st Century. Fewer children were born as the youngest baby boomers aged out of the prime childbearing years. As these older cohorts continue to age and are replaced by the younger groups, the region will see a dip in school-age children. This is not unique to Southeast Michigan. Both the state and national share of school-age population is expected to shrink in the coming decades (Interim Projections of the Population, U. S. Census Bureau) as a result of the aging population. However, increasing out-migration from Southeast Michigan in recent years accelerated the decline in school-age population in the region. 3 – SEMCOG 2040 Forecast – Population by Age Group by School District 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 Thousands Between 2000 and 2010, the region lost more than 350,000 people to net out-migration, most of which occurred during the later part of the decade. Between 2005 and 2009, the region lost an average of 45,000 people per year. While the rate of out-migration is slowing down in the region, migration is generally a function of economic opportunity; future patterns of school-age population will, in part, depend on the region’s ability to grow economically. Figure 3 History and forecast of school age population, Southeast Michigan Community patterns During the 2000s, the region’s 45-and-over population grew by 18 percent, while its under-45 population declined by 13 percent. Fewer births resulted in declining school enrollments. Birth rates in the region dropped from 14.0 births per 1,000 people in 2000, to 11.2 births per 1,000 people in 2010, resulting in a decline of 17 percent in population aged 0 to 10 years. While all parts of the region are witnessing these trends of aging and reduced birth rates, the patterns differ among individual communities and school districts. Many of the outlying and rural counties are seeing greater reductions in number of births compared to urban, inner-ring communities; particularly, several communities in Livingston, St. Clair, Washtenaw, and the northwestern part of Oakland County experienced a decline of more than two points in their birth rate between 2002 and 2010. Of the 233 communities in the region, only 33 communities (14 percent) experienced some gains in number of births in the last decade (Figure 4). 4 – SEMCOG 2040 Forecast – Population by Age Group by School District SANILAC LUCAS (Michigan/Ohio State Line) LENAWEE LENAWEE JACKSON LAPEER OAKLAND MACOMB MARINE CITY WIXOM SOUTHFIELD BIRMINGHAM NOVI WOODHAVEN INKSTER PARK ALLEN DEARBORN GROSSE POINTE LUNA PIER GROSSE POINTE Beach Holly Franklin Hills Bingham Farms Lake SHORES GROSSE POINTE WALES FORT GRATIOT COTTRELLVILLE BLOOMFIELD LIVINGSTON LIVINGSTON WASHTENAW MONROE MONROE WAYNE ST. CLAIR ST. CLAIR MONROE WASHTENAW WASHTENAW LIVINGSTON OAKLAND LIVINGSTON OAKLAND MACOMB ST. CLAIR MACOMB ST. CLAIR WASHTENAW WAYNE South Rockwood Armada Manchester Maybee New Haven Milford BERLIN MUSSEY LYNN ADDISON ST. CLAIR LENOX CASCO RAYWASHINGTON OAKLAND SHELBY CLAY GREENWOOD BURTCHVILLE BROCKWAY BRUCE KENOCKEE ARMADA RICHMOND COLUMBUS EAST CHINA CHESTERFIELD CHINA OXFORD ORION HARRISON HOLLY GROVELAND BRANDON WEST BLOOMFIELD COMMERCE LYON INDEPENDENCESPRINGFIELD ROSE TYRONE HARTLAND HIGHLAND WATERFORD BRIGHTON MILFORD GREEN OAK WHITE LAKE DEERFIELD CONWAY COHOCTAH HOWELL OCEOLA GENOA HAMBURGUNADILLA PUTNAM LYNDON DEXTER WEBSTER NORTHFIELD SYLVAN LIMA SCIO SHARON LODI FREEDOM YPSILANTI MANCHESTER BRIDGEWATER SALINE AUGUSTA SALEM SUPERIOR PITTSFIELD SUMPTER CANTON HURON BROWNSTOWN GROSSE ILE BROWNSTOWN ASH VAN BUREN PLYMOUTH NORTHVILLE MONROE LONDON EXETER ERIE BEDFORD WHITEFORD SUMMERFIELD LASALLE FRENCHTOWN FRENCHTOWN IDA RAISINVILLE BERLIN GRANT KIMBALL INGHAM SHIAWASSEE GENESEE GENESEE OAKLAND WAYNE MACOMB LAPEER Orion TAYLOR AUBURN HILLS ST. CLAIR TROY UTICA PORT HURON ALGONAC MARYSVILLE EASTPOINTE ST. CLAIR SHORES ROSEVILLE WARREN MADISON HEIGHTS CENTER LINE ROCHESTER HILLS STERLING HEIGHTS CLAWSON PARK OAK FERNDALE PLEASANT RIDGE HILLS PONTIAC BERKLEY ROYAL OAK HUNTINGTON WOODS HAZEL PARK VILLAGE LATHRUP FARMINGTON FARMINGTON HILLS LIVONIA HIGHLAND PARK HAMTRAMCK FARMS GROSSE PARK POINTE DETROIT DEARBORN HEIGHTS RIVER ROUGE ECORSE SOUTHGATE WYANDOTTE FLAT ROCK WAYNE ROMULUS HARPER WOODS GROSSE POINTE WOODS WESTLAND LINCOLN PARK GARDEN CITY MELVINDALE RIVERVIEW TRENTON ROCKWOOD Leonard Pinckney Wolverine Oxford Romeo Fowlerville Barton Ortonville Capac Estral Dexter Lake CHELSEA Beverly Emmett Hills Carleton Dundee REDFORD PORT HURON YPSILANTI WALLED LAKE YALE ROCHESTER BLOOMFIELD SALINE HOWELL NORTHVILLE SOUTH LYON LAKE VILLAGE ORCHARD ANGELUS LAKE SYLVAN LAKE KEEGO HARBOR MEMPHIS FRASER MONROE GIBRALTAR PLYMOUTH MILAN NEW BALTIMORE RICHMOND BELLEVILLE CLARKSTON BRIGHTON MOUNT CLEMENS BROWNSTOWN PETERSBURG DUNDEE ANN ARBOR ANN ARBOR ROYAL OAK HANDY IOSCO MARION YORK MILAN RILEY IRA MACOMB CLINTON EMMETT CLYDE Change in rate points (births/1,000 people) Increase in birth rate 0.1 to 1 point decrease 1.1 to 2 point decrease 2.1 to 3 point decrease More than 3 point decrease Figure 4 Change in Birth Rate (per 1,000 people) by Community Southeast Michigan, 2002-2010 Source: SEMCOG analysis of Michigan Department of Community Health data 5 – SEMCOG 2040 Forecast – Population by Age Group by School District By 2020, all seven intermediate school districts in the region will see additional declines in enrollment. Wayne Regional Education Services Agency is expected to experience the greatest decline – 18 percent (60,000 children) between 2010 and 2020. Following are the expected declines in the other county intermediate school districts: St. Clair ISD – 17 percent decline; Livingston Education Services Agency – 16 percent decline; Monroe ISD – 14 percent decline; Oakland Schools – 12 percent decline; Washtenaw ISD – nine percent decline; and Macomb ISD – five percent decline. At the individual school district level, all but seven of the 114 school districts in the region are forecasted to experience declines in school-age children between 2010 to 2020 (Figure 5). For many districts these declines will continue until 2030, at which point the region as a whole is expected to see a rebound in 5-to-17-year-old population. However, the growth is projected to be less than 13,000 (1.8 percent) in the 10 years between 2030 and 2040. Conclusion In all communities across Southeast Michigan, the trend of declining school-age population will have serious impacts on school enrollments and, consequently, on school facility and resource planning. Beyond school enrollments, shifting age dynamics will require communities to focus their planning efforts beyond their local school grounds. Most of these communities are also the ones experiencing rapid increases in their senior population, requiring greater attention to planning for changes in social- service delivery, health-care availability, and recreation opportunities, among other issues related to an aging population. 6 – SEMCOG 2040 Forecast – Population by Age Group by School District Almont Clinton Deerfield Brighton Fowlerville Pinckney Mt. Clemens New Haven Anchor Bay Armada Britton-Macon Rochester Walled Lake Port Huron Algonac Capac East China Yale Brown City Goodrich Columbia Morrice Ann Arbor Lake Shore Clintondale Grand Blanc Webberville Grass Lake Blissfield Hartland Howell L'Anse Creuse Monroe Airport Bedford Jefferson Mason Birmingham Pontiac Royal Oak Avondale Bloomfield Hills Novi Troy Detroit Public Dearborn Plymouth-Canton River RougeWayne-Westland Gibraltar Grosse Ile Township Northville Saline South Lyon FentonLinden Stockbridge Oxford West Bloomfield Brandon Clarkston Farmington Holly Huron Valley Lake Orion Oak Park South Lake Clarenceville Croswell-Lexington Whitmore Lake Riverview Byron Ypsilanti Chelsea Dexter Lincoln Manchester Milan Willow Run Garden City Richmond Romeo Whiteford Agricultural Hazel Park Clawson Harper WoodsHighland Park Redford Union South Redford Utica Warren Warren Woods Dundee Ida Summerfield BerkleySouthfield Flat Rock Waterford Marysville Memphis Ecorse Huron Woodhaven Southgate Van Buren Grosse Pointe Inkster Lincoln Park Livonia Public RomulusTaylor Trenton Numeric change in 5-17 year olds by School District Gain in school age children No change to 500 loss 501 to 1,000 loss 1,001 to 2,000 loss More than 2,000 loss Figure 5 Change in School Age Population by School District Southeast Michigan, 2010-2020 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast EDFORD PORT HURON YPSILANTI WALLED LAKE YALE ROCHESTER BLOOMFIELD SALINE HOWELL NORTHVILLE SOUTH LYON LAKE VILLAGE ORCHARD ANGELUS LAKE SYLVAN LAKE KEEGO HARBOR MEMPHIS FRASER MONROE GIBRALTAR PLYMOUTH MILAN NEW BALTIMORE RICHMOND BELLEVILLE CLARKSTON BRIGHTON MOUNT CLEMENS BROWNSTOWN PETERSBURG DUNDEE ANN ARBOR ANN ARBOR ROYAL