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1 For American Non Pilots June 2016 Newsletter May 29, 2016 Friday’s Good News Two good reports on Friday – an upward revision to GDP and a good Consumer Sentiment Report. The Commerce Department issued revised GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures for the first quarter 2016. This broad measure of goods and services produced across the U.S. economy expanded at a 0.8% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first three months of 2016. That was up from an initial estimate of 0.5% growth but still represented a deceleration from the fourth quarter's 1.4% growth rate. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for May came in at 94.7, its highest reading in nearly a year and a 5.7 point increase from April. This is its largest increase since 2013. A Better Picture for the Market The rally from the February lows has been a relief and has made the charts look a lot more positive. The bullish percent index (the number of stocks with buy signals) in the S&P 500 Index is nearly 80%. That level is higher than during all of 2015. This is an encouraging sign for the market because it leaves plenty of room to consolidate above the 60% minimum bullish level. Readings below the 60% level indicate increased risk. Another indication of an improved market picture comes from the percent of stocks in S&P 500 that are above their 200-day moving average (the blue line under the prices; see chart below). This indicator is back to the 2015 level. It has also improved substantially from the levels of the August 2015 to November 2015 rally. The weekly S&P 500 chart, below, is showing relative strength compared with last two consolidation periods (comparing the blue box with the two red boxes). Back-of-the-napkin math shows the current consolidation period (blue box) with no red bars (downward moves) meaning the market is in a healthier position and may be preparing for a possible move higher. The market has fought back and defended the lows in the S&P 500. The advantage and the challenge is now for a big breakout from the two-year trading range we’ve been in and moving above the May 2015 record high of 2130.82. . Help Hotline We help new subscribers get started and help current subscribers get back on track. 609-602-5071 or firstname.lastname@example.org We see three potential scenarios: 1) The market breaks out to new highs. 2) The major resistance at the top of the range we’ve been in holds and the market drops back down to this year’s low, or 3) The choppy, multi-year trading range continues with many up and down swings ahead. The third scenario seems most likely unless the bulls can now sustain a strong breakout above the current tops. Recent indications are showing that the bulls may have the ability to move the market to new highs and break out of the volatile and choppy trading range of the past two years. We’re ending May within 1.5% of the record high set last May for the S&P 500. Since then we’ve been in a narrow trading range, with each attempt at reaching a new high failing and then followed by steep short- term declines. While there are still caution signs for the market, our model portfolios are well positioned for long-term gains. There are no changes to any of the model portfolio for this month. Model Portfolios …Page 3 2 News You Can Use Become a better informed investor. Check these links: Can the Market make New Highs? When do Stocks Always Rise? Economic Data Up? Long Term Planning Is Inflation On the Way Back? Europe Really? Make sure you have the right newsletter EZTracker publishes two newsletters for American Airlines employees; one for the pilots’ 401k and one for all other employees. This is the newsletter for American non-pilots. The two plans have different investment choices. Choose the correct newsletter when you log-in. Long-Term Thinking: The Profit Squeeze With most first quarter earnings reports completed and punishment dished out to those who failed to meet expectations, focus for the rest of the year will be crucial to the markets hitting new highs. Expectations are that second and third quarter results will be flat to slightly down but with a stronger fourth quarter compared to 2015’s dismal fourth quarter results. The road ahead for many public corporations will be to deliver the short-term results where investors focus and the long-term needs for growth. Top line revenue growth should continue to improve throughout the year but companies are going to have increasing difficulty in delivering the bottom line profits as they get squeezed: Over the last 10 years, we’ve seen a dramatic growth in productivity and corporate efficiency. The process was ugly: lay-offs, elimination of backroom redundancy and plant closings growing out of mergers, inventory reduction through improved logistics, disappearance of “middle-management” and the move to lower cost geographic areas. Most of the gains from these moves have been realized and contributions to profits are on the books While there has been some recent growth in hourly wages, pressure will continue to grow. With declining unemployment, the labor market has gotten much tighter requiring companies to raise wages to attract employees. Combine this with the impact of an increase in the minimum wage and more money will be headed to employees rather than the bottom line. Investors are looking for increased dividends in this low interest rate environment. Activist shareholders are pressuring corporate boards to increase payouts to shareholders – especially for companies carrying a lot of cash. Stocks, mutual funds and ETFs with higher dividends have outperformed over the last two years. To keep shares attractive, many companies will increase dividends at the expense of bottom line results. With demands for higher wages and dividend payouts, many companies are faced with a difficult decision: meet short-term profit expectations by cutting investments in R&D and plant and facilities or invest for the long-term but risk getting hammered in the market when they fail to deliver quarterly numbers. As a result, we would expect to continue to see increased volatility when companies report quarterly earnings. The EZTracker portfolios will continue to focus on the long-term market trends. Refer a Friend Many of your friends could use help with their 401k. Tell them about EZTracker. Send us their email address. We’ll send a copy of this month’s newsletter. When they subscribe, we’ll add a month to your subscription. Help for your IRA The EZTracker ETF newsletter is a great tool for your IRA or other non-401k investments. With six model portfolios including commission-free ones for Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab and Ameritrade. Get a free copy of the June issue. email@example.com or 609-513-8623 3 Model Portfolio Changes Effective May 29, 2016 Log on to Fidelity NetBenefits at www.netbenefits.com/aa. Current Subscribers: 1. Trend, Aggressive, Moderate and Conservative Portfolios: No changes in any of the model portfolios this month. 2. Brokerage Portfolio: No changes this month. New Subscribers: Rebalance your 401k to match the chart below for the portfolio you want to follow. Use the Rebalance directions on the next page. After you complete the necessary “Exchange” or “Rebalance,” copy your confirmation number. *Buy dates are the dates of the most recent purchase. In some cases previous purchases may have been made. Your buy and sell dates may be different. Each subscriber should keep track of his or her own specific transaction dates. **this is the Advantage share class which has a $10,000 minimum. For those with smaller accounts, FUSEX/FSIIX have $2,500 minimums. If you are a new subscriber and need assistance getting your portfolio started or if you’ve fallen behind and need to get your portfolio on track, contact the EZTracker Help Hotline – 609-602-5071 or firstname.lastname@example.org All transactions in your 401k take place after the close of the market. You will see your newly updated portfolio the next day. Questions? Call American Airlines 401k Service Center at Fidelity at 1-800-354-3412. Aggressive, Trend, Moderate & Conservative Portfolios: This is the money coming out of your paycheck each month and going into your 401k. Your future contributions should be set identical to your “Current Investments” in the chart above. Brokerage Portfolio: Set Future Investments for 100% to Fidelity Cash Reserves (FDRXX) rather than adding to positions you already hold. You should put money that accumulates in Fidelity Cash Reserves (FDRXX) should be put to work when you are buying new positions. Here’s our suggested approach: When adding one new position, add 50% of your cash balance to the proceeds of the fund you are selling. When adding two or more new positions, add 100% of your cash balance to the proceeds of the funds you are selling and split the dollar total equally in purchasing the new funds. While this process will lead to a wider variance from our model portfolios, you will have put your cash to work in the top performing sectors. Brokerage Portfolio With the new 401k plan, you can use the Fidelity Brokerage Link for up to 95% of your 401k and follow the EZTracker Brokerage Portfolio. The EZTracker Brokerage Portfolio is a very aggressive approach for investors who want to invest in a wider range of market sectors. Managing this portfolio will require more time and greater comfort with risk than the other EZTracker portfolios. We suggest this portfolio for more experienced, knowledgeable investors. See the Monthly Fund Data on page 8 for a list of funds in this portfolio. If you are interested in using Fidelity’s Self-Directed Brokerage Link, follow the instructions on the Fidelity website to set up your account or call the American representative at Fidelity (800-354-3412). EZTracker Model Portfolios Trend & Aggressive Moderate Conservative Brokerage Buy* Penalty for early sale. US LG CAP STK IDX 40% 30% 25% 4/25/16 US SMID CAP STK IDX 20% 15% 5% 4/25/16 MIP II CL 3 30% 4/25/16 US BOND INDEX 30% 30% 4/25/16 US LG CAP VAL STOCK 20% 10% 4/25/16 INTERNATIONAL STOCK 10% 10% 10% 4/25/16 EMERGING MARKETS STOCK 10% 5% 4/25/16 AA FED CREDIT UNION 5% 11/6/15 Spartan 500 Index (FUSVX)** 18% 11/6/15 Select Consumer Staples Portfolio (FDFAX) 19% 11/6/15 .75% < 30 Days Select Retailing Portfolio (FSRPX) 13% 2/29/16 .75% < 30 Days Select Telecommunications Portfolio (FSTCX) 15% 3/28/16 .75% < 30 Days Fidelity Mid Cap Stock Fund (FMCSX) 15% 4/25/16 .75% < 30 Days Spartan International Index (FSIVX)** 15% 4/25/16 1.00% < 90 Days STEP 1: Update Your Current Portfolio STEP 2: Change Future Investments Step-by-step directions for updating your portfolio are on the next page. 4 Detailed Directions – May 29, 2016 There are no changes in any of the model portfolios this month. Rebalance For new subscribers or current subscribers who did not make changes last month. If you are a new subscriber and need assistance getting your portfolio started or if you’ve fallen behind and need to get your portfolio on track, call the EZTracker Help Hotline – 609-602-5071 (9-4 ET). All transactions in your 401k take place after the close of the market. You will see your newly updated portfolio the next day. Questions? Call Fidelity and tell them what percentages you want in each fund: 800‐354-3412. Rebalance Directions: 1. Log on to Fidelity NetBenefits at www.netbenefits.com/aa. 2. Click on the “Quick Links” button. The sixth item down is “Change Investments.” Click it. 3. Click on “Exchange multiple investments”. 4. Click on “Start Your Rebalance” 5. In the “Desired %” column, enter the percentages for the portfolio you want to follow on page 3. 6. Click “Begin Rebalance” 7. Choose “Rebalance my account, one time”. Click next. 8. Review & Submit rebalance. Click Submit. 9. Now update your Future Investments. (Pay Check and Company Contributions ) Scroll down to the blue highlighted box at the bottom of the page. Click on “Contributions”. 10. Scroll to the bottom of the page and in the box labeled ”Choose your own investments” click “Select Funds” 11. Complete the process by entering the percentages from the chart on page 3 in the “Desired %” column. Click next. 12. Review & Submit. Click submit. 13. Copy your confirmation number. 14. Log out. 5 Performance Current Performance through May 29, 2016: Historical Performance: The following summarizes the performance of the EZTracker model portfolios since we began publishing in 2002. *Total returns including dividends. EZTracker portfolios invest in the best performing funds. Past performance does not guarantee future results. As with any long-term investing strategy, you should not expect dramatic short-term results to offset past losses. Model Portfolios EZTracker Aggressive Portfolio is always fully invested in to the best performing funds. While offering the highest potential reward, the Aggressive model portfolio carries the corresponding highest risk. EZTracker Trend Portfolio follows major market indicators. When positive, the portfolio is invested similar to the Aggressive model portfolio; when negative , the portfolio is invested in the AA Federal Credit Union and/or bonds. EZTracker Moderate Portfolio allocates a minimum of 30% to the AA Federal Credit Union and/or bond options with the balance allocated to the best performing funds. EZTracker Conservative Portfolio allocates a minimum of 60% to the AA Federal Credit Union and/or bond options with the balance allocated to the best performing funds. EZTracker Brokerage Portfolio is always 95% invested through the Fidelity Brokerage link in the best performing funds. This is a high risk/high reward portfolio. Some market conditions may cause us to deviate from these percentages. Selecting the right portfolio is an individual decision based on your comfort and ability to take risk. EZTracker cannot pick the right portfolio for you. Portfolio Performance YTD 2016 EZTracker Aggressive -.76% EZTracker Moderate 1.69% EZTracker Conservative 1.35% EZTracker Trend -6.56% EZTracker Brokerage -1.64% Morningstar Benchmarks Aggressive Target Risk 3.47% Moderate Target Risk 3.75% Conservative Target Risk 3.62% Annual % Total Returns* 6 Non Pilots Monthly Fund Data The following are the funds in the American non-pilots’ 401k plan. The “Tracker Average” is a weighted average of performance over the past year and is a key factor in selecting funds for inclusion in the Aggressive, Trend, Moderate and Conservative model portfolios. (See the data for the Brokerage model portfolio on the next page.) The funds in the American Airlines 401k plan began November 1, 2015. As a result, limited performance data is available. As data for these funds becomes available, we will incorporate it. In addition to the performance data for these funds, we use data from similar funds which track the same benchmarks as the funds in the American Airlines 401k plan. AA Non Pilots Fund Total Returns Tracker 1 MO 3 MO 6 MO 12 MO Average U.S. Large Cap Stock Index 0.20% 7.62% 1.19% U.S. Bond Index 0.39% 1.18% 3.21% Diversified Bond Fund 0.39% 2.29% 3.22% American Target Date Post-Retirement -0.10% 4.64% 1.81% Inflation Protected Fund 0.49% 1.57% 3.40% American Target Date 2015 -0.20% 5.77% 1.31% American Target Date 2020 -0.40% 6.24% 0.90% American Target Date 2025 -0.40% 6.82% 0.50% U.S. Large Cap Value Stock Fund 0.00% 10.53% 0.59% American Target Date 2030 -0.50% 7.19% 0.10% American Target Date 2040 -0.60% 7.56% -0.20% Managed Income Portfolio 0.13% 0.36% 0.71% American Target Date 2055 -0.70% 7.68% -0.30% American Target Date 2060 -0.70% 7.68% -0.30% American Target Date 2050 -0.70% 7.68% -0.30% American Target Date 2045 -0.70% 7.68% -0.30% U.S. Small/Mid Cap Stock Fund 0.60% 9.16% -1.46% American Target Date 2035 -0.70% 7.33% -0.20% U.S. Small/Mid Cap Stock Index 0.80% 11.39% -1.18% American Airlines Federal Credit Union 0.07% 0.14% 0.20% Fidelity Institutional Money Market 0.03% 0.09% 0.16% U.S. Large Cap Growth Stock Fund 0.21% 5.43% -4.53% International Stock Fund -1.43% 8.17% -2.62% International Developed Markets Stock Index -1.82% 8.75% -2.02% Emerging Markets Stock Index -5.27% 9.16% -3.05% 7 Brokerage Portfolio Monthly Fund Data These Fidelity funds are used in the EZTracker Brokerage Portfolio. These make use of the brokerage link in the American Airlines 401k plan. Brokerage Portfolio Fund Fund Total Returns Tracker Ticker Restrictions 1 MO 3 MO 6 MO 12 MO Average Select Gold Portfolio FSAGX .75% < 90 days -0.24% 20.36% 59.63% 24.15% 56.68% Select Telecommunications Portfolio FSTCX .75% < 30 days 0.66% 7.87% 11.35% 8.72% 15.60% Fidelity Real Estate Investment Portfolio FRESX .75% < 90 days 0.31% 8.66% 7.18% 12.22% 15.48% Select Utilities Portfolio FSUTX .75% < 30 days 2.58% 8.49% 13.72% 3.36% 15.36% Select Construction & Housing Portfolio FSHOX 1.51% 12.32% -0.10% 6.41% 10.99% Spartan Long- Term Treasury Bond Index FLBAX 2.23% 0.25% 8.22% 8.45% 10.45% Select Consumer Staples Portfolio FDFAX .75% < 30 days 0.63% 5.21% 7.67% 5.16% 10.18% Select Retailing Portfolio FSRPX .75% < 30 days 0.89% 5.98% -2.60% 12.74% 9.28% Fidelity International Bond FINUX -0.54% 5.97% 6.63% 3.98% 8.75% Fidelity New Markets Income FNMIX 1% < 90 days 0.64% 6.91% 3.81% 2.98% 7.82% Select Energy Portfolio FSENX .75% < 30 days 0.00% 23.84% 1.49% -11.43% 7.58% Select Defense & Aerospace Portfolio FSDAX 1.98% 9.74% 2.04% -0.45% 7.26% Fidelity High Income Fund SPHIX 1% < 90 days 1.27% 9.47% 4.47% -2.27% 7.06% Fidelity Corporate Bond FCBFX 0.71% 5.05% 3.52% 2.33% 6.33% Spartan 500 Index FUSVX 0.16% 7.85% 1.17% 1.52% 5.84% Select Natural Resources Portfolio FNARX .75% < 30 days -0.07% 23.97% 0.64% -14.27% 5.60% Fidelity Total Bond FTBFX 0.61% 3.52% 3.50% 2.47% 5.51% Fidelity International Small Cap FSCOX 2% < 90 days 0.87% 7.63% 2.53% -1.26% 5.33% Spartan Total Market Index FSTVX .50% < 90 days 0.03% 8.33% 0.46% -0.13% 4.74% Fidelity Mid Cap Stock Fund FMCSX .75% < 30 days 0.52% 10.80% 0.29% -3.19% 4.59% Fidelity Large Cap Value Enhanced Index FLVEX -0.28% 8.58% 1.42% -1.36% 4.56% Spartan US Bond Index FSITX 0.54% 1.45% 3.15% 3.22% 4.56% Spartan Inflation Protected Bond Index FSIYX 0.63% 1.89% 3.32% 1.61% 4.06% Select Industrials Portfolio FCYIX .75% < 30 days -1.27% 7.52% 0.80% 0.33% 4.03% Select Technology Portfolio FSPTX .75% < 30 days 0.90% 9.47% -1.30% -2.11% 3.80% Fidelity Europe FIEUX 1% < 30 days 1.28% 10.22% 1.39% -6.19% 3.65% Fidelity Contrafund FCNKX 0.45% 6.76% -1.86% 1.31% 3.63% Fidelity Pacific Basin FPBFX 1.50% < 90 days -1.00% 9.28% 2.65% -4.32% 3.61% Select Materials Portfolio FSDPX .75% < 30 days 0.08% 13.32% 0.63% -7.53% 3.54% Select Banking Portfolio FSRBX .75% < 30 days 0.00% 14.05% -5.72% -2.14% 3.38% Fidelity GNMA FGMNX 0.44% 0.61% 2.15% 2.40% 3.06% Fidelity Large Cap Stock FLCSX -0.30% 10.94% -0.47% -4.58% 3.05% Fidelity Latin America FLATX 1.50% < 90 days -2.08% 19.45% 2.90% -15.88% 2.40% Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index FNCMX .75% < 90 days 0.47% 7.21% -3.54% -1.35% 1.52% Fidelity Worldwide FWWFX 1% < 30 days 0.46% 7.87% -1.68% -4.31% 1.28% Fidelity Limited Term Govt FFXSX 0.08% -0.01% 0.96% 0.90% 1.05% Fidelity Mid Cap Value Fund FSMVX .75% < 30 days -0.65% 8.46% 0.01% -6.40% 0.78% Fidelity Mid Cap Enhanced Index FMEIX .75% < 30 days -1.53% 6.89% -0.51% -4.34% 0.28% Select Consumer Discretionary Portfolio FSCPX .75% < 30 days -1.19% 4.46% -4.52% 1.09% -0.09% Select Financial Services Portfolio FIDSX .75% < 30 days 0.06% 9.65% -3.52% -6.52% -0.18% Fidelity Small Cap Growth FCPGX 1.50% < 90 days 0.44% 9.73% -4.85% -5.79% -0.26% Spartan International Index FSIVX 1% < 90 days -1.13% 8.93% -2.24% -9.63% -2.22% Fidelity Total Emerging Markets FTEMX 1.50% < 90 days -1.95% 8.07% -0.74% -9.52% -2.26% Select Air Transportation Portfolio FSAIX .75% < 30 days -3.60% 3.15% -2.93% -2.13% -3.01% Fidelity Japan Index FJPNX 1.50% < 90 days -2.78% 7.44% -3.95% -6.35% -3.07% Fidelity Small Cap Enhanced Index FCPEX 1.50% < 90 days -1.69% 5.54% -5.46% -7.42% -4.93% Fidelity Convertible Securities FCVSX -1.52% 6.01% -4.94% -10.89% -6.19% Select Transportation Portfolio FSRFX -5.69% 1.18% -4.40% -6.62% -8.47% Select Health Care Portfolio FSPHX .75% < 30 days -0.39% 4.55% -6.89% -13.36% -8.78% Select Pharmaceuticals Portfolio FPHAX -0.58% 1.33% -7.47% -13.81% -11.19% Select Biotechnology Portfolio FBIOX 0.12% 11.82% -22.59% -25.95% -19.97% Fidelity China Region FHKCX 1.50% < 90 days -3.72% 5.24% -12.84% -34.86% -25.20% 8 Questions, Comments, Problems Let us know if you have any questions or suggestions. We’re just a click away at email@example.com. Or call (609) 513-8623. For help or questions about rebalancing or fund-to-fund transfers call 609-602-5071. The information and data contained herein are compiled from sources and procedures believed reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. EZTracker monitors fund performance and publishes a monthly newsletter. The publisher and owners disclaim any and all liability for losses that may be sustained as a result of using the data presented herein. Past performance is no assurance of future results. All investments involve risk. You should invest only after careful examination of fund prospectuses. EZTracker401k is monthly newsletter monitoring the 401k investment alternatives available to employees of American Airlines. Published by EZ Tracker LLC, P.O. Box 388, Haddon Heights, NJ 08035. Contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org.EZTracker is a publishing company founded to meet the growing demand for expert, reliable, objective information about the 401k choices offered to American Airlines employees. EZTracker is not endorsed by or affiliated with American Airlines or any of its subsidiaries. The goal of EZTracker is to take the guesswork out of 401k choices and to help every employee manage his or her own 401k plan with confidence and in an informed way. EZTracker is not a financial advisor nor is it a financial manager. It is a provider of information about the various funds within the American Airlines 401k retirement plan. By reporting the performance of each fund in a straightforward and easy to understand manner, we hope every employee, from the financial neophyte to the sophisticated investor will make informed choices to best fit their retirement goals and needs. No reproduction of any EZTracker401k information is permitted without the written permission of the publishers. American Airlines is a registered trademark of AMR Corp. EZTracker is not affiliated with or endorsed by American Airlines, Fidelity Investments or any of its subsidiaries. Copyright EZTracker LLC, 2016. rials Portfolio FSDPX .75% < 30 days 0.08% 13.32% 0.63% -7.53% 3.54% Select Banking Portfolio FSRBX .75% < 30 days 0.00% 14.05% -5.72% -2.14% 3.38% Fidelity GNMA FGMNX 0.44% 0.61% 2.15% 2.40% 3.06% Fidelity Large Cap Stock FLCSX -0.30% 10.94% -0.47% -4.58% 3.05% Fidelity Latin America FLATX 1.50% < 90 days -2.08% 19.45% 2.90% -15.88% 2.40% Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index FNCMX .75% < 90 days 0.47% 7.21% -3.54% -1.35% 1.52% Fidelity Worldwide FWWFX 1% < 30 days 0.46% 7.87% -1.68% -4.31% 1.28% Fidelity Limited Term Govt FFXSX 0.08% -0.01% 0.96% 0.90% 1.05% Fidelity Mid Cap Value Fund FSMVX .75% < 30 days -0.65% 8.46% 0.01% -6.40% 0.78% Fidelity Mid Cap Enhanced Index FMEIX .75% < 30 days -1.53% 6.89% -0.51% -4.34% 0.28% Select Consumer Discretionary Portfolio FSCPX .75% < 30 days -1.19% 4.46% -4.52% 1.09% -0.09% Select Financial Services Portfolio FIDSX .75% < 30 days 0.06% 9.65% -3.52% -6.52% -0.18% Fidelity Small Cap Growth FCPGX 1.50% < 90 days 0.44% 9.73% -4.85% -5.79% -0.26% Spartan International Index FSIVX 1% < 90 days -1.13% 8.93% -2.24% -9.63% -2.22% Fidelity Total Emerging Markets FTEMX 1.50% < 90 days -1.95% 8.07% -0.74% -9.52% -2.26% Select Air Transportation Portfolio FSAIX .75% < 30 days -3.60% 3.15% -2.93% -2.13% -3.01% Fidelity Japan Index FJPNX 1.50% < 90 days -2.78% 7.44% -3.95% -6.35% -3.07% Fidelity Small Cap Enhanced Index FCPEX 1.50% < 90 days -1.69% 5.54% -5.46% -7.42% -4.93% Fidelity Conv