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Kansai Extra 2016/1/9 R1 2AC
Their stance is 1. CP indicates domestic policy has smaller risk and 2. DA explain that risk; foreigners have the potential to be terrorist.
That’s wrong. Such stance to fear the terror rather causes risk of terror,
So in sum, halfway policy is the most risky choice. I’ll give you details.
Vs. NEG OBs with DA; terror
As for 3rd card, they said U.S. and European countries stopped accepting foreigners.
So what? It’s not the reason Japan should follow.
2. No applicability. Terror is happened partially because of religious conflict c/a their evidence. T/F in Japan where nation has no religion, terror rarely occurs.
A/L this risk is negligible.
Then about their 4th argument, they said foreigners have potential to be terrorist.
H/E 1 N/UQ; lots of foreigners are already there. In addition, Olympic will be hold in 2020. So as long as getting a rid of terror risk is impossible, this argument is worthless.
2 card check for their 2nd evidence indicating people became terrorist after excluded or discriminated. So discrimination is the root cause.
Therefore my 2nd response here is that these kinds of thought or prejudice rather causes the discrimination and will be trigger of terror.
I mean strict prohibition of foreign workers or regarding foreign workers as potential of terror itself is the discrimination and trigger of terror.
So what we have to do is not recognizing the risk of terror nor planting prejudice for foreigners, but after recognizing the terror, have to consider what we should do for it.
On this point, affirmative plan with anti-discrimination policy is much better than just fearing terror and doing nothing.
3rd TA; the stance fearing terror and following them rather accelerate terrorism because negative stance means Japan has no power for terror just follow them.
This is why actually last year, Team Abe declared not to follow terrorist and didn’t follow them.
BBC News 2015 / Japan increases foreign anti-terror aid /
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-31499544http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-31499544 / available at 2016/1/9
Q) Shortly after, IS released a video threatening to kill the two Japanese hostages, Haruna Yukawa and Kenji Goto, if Japan did not pay a $200m ransom.
Mr. Abe vowed that Japan would not "give in to terrorism". (UQ
About DA b) 1st they said AP Muslim goes to Japan based on empirical data of Europe.
This evidence doesn’t fulfill the proof burden of LK. I have 3 reasons.
No. 1. If in Europe Muslim increased, why in Japan will Muslim increase?
2. Even SQ Muslim can easily go to Japan for sightseeing.
3. Even if Muslim increases, why does it extend terror? It’s lack of proof.
About 2nd LK, just the same, if foreign workers can easily change to new terrorist, visitor can easily change to new terrorist even SQ. So not unique.
M/O 2nd argument is N/LK.
1. AP foreigners come to Japan for getting job meaning earning money must be their aim.
Therefore their TG is out of debate.
2. The security check will work so that it’s impossible to bring weapon.
A/L P-S shall enhance the security sufficiently like baggage inspection or increase number of police same as Olympics. It’s enough.
Vs CP domestic 系
Remember they granted aging and low birth rate is the problem
This is round consensus. So now we have to debate how to deal with this problem.
And note that this stance was already failed in negative observation.
About c) 1st card, they use many methods inside the country. But not workable.
Even now elderly people work over 65.
OECD 2013 / The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development / 図表で見る年金 2013 年版 OECD と G20 の指標 日本 / p1 /
http://www.oecd.org/japan/OECD-PensionsAtAGlance-2013-Highlights-Japan.pdfhttp://www.oecd.org/japan/OECD-PensionsAtAGlance-2013-Highlights-Japan.pdf / available at 2016/1/8
Q) The effective age of labor market exit in Japan is one of the highest in OECD.
Retirement-income adequacy may be an issue for future cohorts of retirees.
Despite a current and projected pensionable age of 65 years for both men and women, the effective age of labor market exit is high in international comparison: 69.1 for men and 66.7 for women relative to 64.2 and 63.6 on average in the OECD. (UQ
So we have already reached a limit. In addition our AD b) last card clearly mentioned “it’s impossible to cover only by elderly workers.” Hence this policy is fragile.
Improving technology can cover labor shortage? This means robots can care elderly people? Robot can make crops? No they aren’t. Even SQ automation is proceeding compared to Showa era. But still we suffer labor shortage. So CP is meaningless.
About women, following evidence concluded that bearing child and career become competitive for women.
Researcher Suzuki 2008 / 国立社会保障・人口問題研究所 人口構造研究部 部長 / Fertility Decline and Policy Development in Japan / p8 /
http://www.ipss.go.jp/webj-ad/webjournal.files/population/2006_3/suzuki.pdfhttp://www.ipss.go.jp/webj-ad/webjournal.files/population/2006_3/suzuki.pdf / available at 2016/1/8
Q) In Japan, the incompatibility between female labor and fertility is expressed in an M-shaped curve of age-specific participation rates. Although an M-shaped curve can be seen also in Korea and New Zealand, the drop between age 25-29 and age 30-34 is steepest in Japan (Furugori, 2003, p. 48). Thus, many Japanese women have the ability and opportunity to work but they have to give up their career on childbearing. (UQ
So in sum, no clear prospect was given from negative.
They went on to say women working rate and birthrate have relation.
Card check. This card just said when employment rate increased, birthrate increased.
And not focus on the relevancy between them. I have refutations about this evidence. 1 birthrate と employment 言ってない . So this evidence doesn’t support their claim.
2 In Europe including France like 4th, gender equity is advanced while Japan is not so.
I continue the evidence cited above.
Same source as above / same page / available at 2016/1/8
Q) Such incompatibility is attributed to the remaining gender role attitude, low participation of the husband in housework, characteristics of the labor market, and underdevelopment of family friendly policy (Atoh and Akachi, 2003, p. 35; Meguro and Nishioka, 2000). (UQ
Actually in Japan, birthrate fell sharply though female participation in labor force was high level. So this author doubted the relevancy between birthrate and employment rate.
Prof. Oshio 2008 / 一橋大学経済研究所 教授 / Japan economic currents The Declining Birthrate in Japan / p2 /
https://www.kkc.or.jp/english/activities/publications/economic-currents69.pdfhttps://www.kkc.or.jp/english/activities/publications/economic-currents69.pdf / available at 2016/1/8
Q) Japan in the1970s had a relatively high level of female participation in the labor force, but thereafter it rose little, while the birthrate fell sharply. Judging from this record, we cannot confidently proclaim that getting more women into the labor force will result in more children. (UQ
So I conclude the main reason behind low birthrate in Japan is low gender-equity.
And as long as Japan faces to labor shortage, gender-equity will be still in low even in the future. I turn to Suzuki again
Same source as above (Suzuki evidence) / same page / available at 2016/1/8
Q) According to the proposition by McDonald (2000, p. 437) that “When gender equity rises to high levels in individual-oriented institutions while remaining low in family-oriented institutions, fertility will fall to very low levels”, Japan has a good reason to have very low fertility. (UQ
So affirmative plan rather has sign to improve now and make the environment like France.
Moreover fertility rate of immigrant is high c/a AD last.
It’s better (w).
Vs TA jobless
As for their TA, jobless argument, AFF plan is superior, because foreign workers are not so competitive.
OECD 2015 / same explanation as before / The Contribution of Labour Mobility to Economic Growth / p13 /
http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/---publ/documents/publication/wcms_398078.pdfhttp://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/---publ/documents/publication/wcms_398078.pdf / available at 2016/1/8
Q) It is sometimes argued that immigrants displace native workers but available evidence does not support this perception. An extensive literature attempts to estimate the impact of migration on receiving labor markets. Results differ depending on the approach, the country and the geographical scale used but most of the studies find only marginal effects on wages and employment on average, with potentially more impact on low-skilled workers or past migrants. (UQ
This is because foreigners complements the labor gap.
Same source continue / p13 / available at 2016/1/8
Q) New immigrants represented 22% of entries into strongly growing occupations in the United States and 15% in Europe. These include notably health-care occupations and STEM occupations (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics).At the same time, immigrants represented about a quarter of entries into the most strongly declining occupations in Europe (24%) and the United States (28%). In Europe, these occupations include craft and related trades workers as well as machine operators and assemblers; in the United States, they concern mostly jobs in production, installation, maintenance and repair. In all these areas, immigrants are filling labor needs by taking up jobs regarded by domestic workers as unattractive or lacking career prospects. (UQ
2nd, job competition in Japan does not result in unemployment.
Economist Saiki 2013 / Economist, De Nederlandsche Bank, PhD in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University in the US/ Japan’s still-falling inflation rate is signalling the need for labour-market reforms /
http://www.voxeu.org/article/fixing-japan-s-deflation-requires-labour-market-reformshttp://www.voxeu.org/article/fixing-japan-s-deflation-requires-labour-market-reforms / available at 2016/1/8
Q) Japanese companies typically resort to wage cuts for workers with so-called life-long employment contracts rather than lay-offs to adjust for cyclical downturns or due to tougher price competition from abroad. As a result, the unemployment rate has been low, but wages continue to decline. (UQ
So effect of DA appear as wage cut. Then, I argue TA.
CP also cause wage cut.
Prof. Fukushima 2012 / Professor, Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University / The Japan News by The Yomiuri Shimbun / Will Mandatory Continuous Employment up to the Age of 65 Decrease Employment Opportunities for Young Workers? /
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/adv/wol/dy/opinion/gover-eco_130204.htmlhttp://www.yomiuri.co.jp/adv/wol/dy/opinion/gover-eco_130204.html / available at 2016/1/8
Q) According to some interviews with personnel in several Japanese companies, the increase in total labor costs caused by extending elderly employment contracts will be compensated for by adjusting wages for workers under age 60. (UQ
They showed M-R extending age is impossible c/a CP refutation.
And about increasing tax, again I extend AD b)1st card indicating we have to raise to 70% or 80%. It’s impossible.
Even SQ after raising up consumption tax to 8%, it invoked frustration and economy got worse then the plan raising to 10% was passed at that time. So their plan is not feasible and rather economy will get worse.
Additionally, we introduce one approach for international cooperation.
Technical Intern Training Program (TITP) in Japan is to transfer Japanese skills and knowledge to Technical Intern Trainees which will form a basis of economic development in their respective countries
Japan International Training Cooperation Organization 2013 / 公益財団法人国際研修協力機構 (JITCO) / Technical Intern Training Program in Japan p2 / https://www.jitco.or.jp/download/data/kouhou_pamphlet_en.pdf / オーソリティーはこちらより入手
http://www.jitco.or.jp/http://www.jitco.or.jp/ / available at 2016/1/6
The Technical Intern Training Program has the following benefits. (Omit)
3. The program will also benefit Japanese Implementing Organizations, etc., through the strengthening of relationships with overseas companies, the internationalization of management, vitalization of the company and contribution to production line.
2AC for Extra in Kansai Affirmative OPU + OU debate section
4extensive literature attempts to estimate the impact of migration on receiving labor markets. Results differ depending on the approach, the country and the geographical scale used but most of the studies find only marginal effects on wages and employment on average, with potentially more impact on low-skilled workers or past migrants. (UQ
3. The program will also benefit Japanese Implementing Organizations, etc., through the strengthening o