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Kansai Extra 2016/1/9 R1 Case
At the beginning of the debate, we recognize the situation, now we face to.
Japan currently has an aging population.
Productive population is severely decreasing while elderly population is increasing.
United Nations Population Division 2007 / United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration p1 Scenario I /
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/ReplMigED/Japan.pdf%20/http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/ReplMigED/Japan.pdf / available at 2016/01/06
Q) "The working age population (15-64 years old) of Japan is projected to decline continuously, from 87.2 million in 1995 to 57.1 million in 2050." (Omit) As a result, the percentage of population aged 65 or older in the total population would more than double, from 14.6 percent in 1995 to 31.8 per cent in 2050. (UQ
Sure, we have problems in internal affairs like above. However, in the society moving toward globalization, it is also significant to turn our eyes to foreign affairs, meaning the era of national isolation was over, now we should seriously consider the way to go in cooperation with foreign countries each other.
Taking an example of trading or advanced research, they are growing up while compensating each weak points and referring to each strong points.
This is partially because investment for international cooperation will be eventually for their own benefit through overall growth.
Japan Business Federation 2008 / 日本経済団体連合会 / 今後の国際協力のあり方について―戦略的視点の重視と官民連携の強化― /
https://www.keidanren.or.jp/japanese/policy/2008/019/honbun.htmlhttps://www.keidanren.or.jp/japanese/policy/2008/019/honbun.html / available at 2016/1/7
Q) Japan currently has a lot of problems in internal affairs including an advancement of aging society with child birthrate falling. As a result, many people tend to take inward-looking attitude and lack interest in foreign affairs. Today, however, with the globalization of the world economy, other advanced countries are achieving stable growth while adapting to this tendency. In fact, emerging economies including China or India, are enhancing international status with the significant progress. Japan should seriously consider the way to go, otherwise will lose our presence as nation or even in economic area. It is essential to make effort in diplomacy in order to enjoy the advantage of globalization and to maintain and enhance our presence and influence as a large country in internal society. Considering that, approach for international cooperation is the key along with a trade policy. The investment for economic growth in developing country, eventually leads to benefits for our economic growth through the growth of world economy. (UQ
Today, we, affirmative side, pick up the aging problem with a view to globalization.
Shall allow to accept the foreign worker
Shall give the company a free hand in deciding employment or its number, meaning no difference from the employment of Japanese.
With the acceptance of foreigners, shall amend immigration control act to officially admit foreign worker to stay in Japan and establish anti-discrimination policy.
The working population of Japan is severely decreasing while elderly population is increasing.
However the number of immigrant is very small.
United Nations Population Division 2007 / same as observation a) 1st evidence
Q) If Japan wishes to keep the size of its population at the level attained in the year 2005, the country would need 17 million net immigrants up to the year 2050, or an average of 381,000 immigrants per year between 2005 and 2050. (UQ
This directly corresponds to the fiscal imbalance and it is so serious that any patchwork policy can hardly cover.
TOKYO FOUNDATION 2012 / 東京財団 / Aging and Social Security in Japan / http://www.tokyofoundation.org/en/articles/2012/aging-and-social-security-in-japan / available at 2016/1/6
Q) The ratio of social security expenditures to nominal GDP was 23.0% in 2010, but it is estimated to rise to 42.9% in 2060. (Omit) If the government were to use consumption tax revenues to maintain the present level of social security benefits, the rate would have to be raised to anywhere between 70% and 80% by 2060. (UQ
The shortage of labor force is practically damage to many types of jobs.
Here I pick up nursing and agriculture as example.
Sankei news 2015 / 産経ニュース 2015.06.23 / 介護職員 38 万人不足の恐れ 37 年度、 253 万人必要 厚労省推計 / http://www.sankei.com/life/news/150623/lif1506230029-n1.html / available on 2015
Q) According to the estimation of Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare, nursing workers nationwide estimated to 2.53 million in 37th of Heisei---which Baby-Boomer Generations become over 75. But if we will keep current staff-increasing pace, 380 thousands of nursing workers would be needed. In 25th Heisei, total number of nursing workers is 1.71 million including part-time workers, therefore 800 thousands of further workers are needed by 10 years after. Nursing field marks high turnover rate, so government now hurrying to secure enough number of nursing workers. (UQ
Researcher 西川 2004 / 西川 明子 / 調査及び立法考査局 元農林環境課 / 農村地域における高齢化と新規就農者 2 農業労働力の減少と高齢化 / http://www.ndl.go.jp/jp/diet/publication/document/2005/200502/14.pdf / オーソリティに関してはこちらも参照のこと http://www.ndl.go.jp/jp/diet/service/works.html / available at 2016/1/7
Q) In agriculture, declining number of workers and their aging are drastically progressing compared to other industries. Now fine elderly people play an important role. However, in order to maintain its vitality, employing young or middle aged adults are essential. This is because there are lots of problems like lack of inheritor or increase of deserted cultivated land and it is impossible to cover by only elderly workers. (UQ
Welcoming foreign worker effectively supply labor force.
I introduce successful example of Korea. Korea suffers from similar problem in the past. But new immigration policy which provide official migration path has solved the problem.
Researcher Kim 2015 / Min Ji Kim オーソリティに関してはこちらを参照
http://www.snis.ch/content/role-fix-734http://www.snis.ch/content/role-fix-734 / The Republic of Korea’s Employment Permit System (EPS): Background and Rapid Assessment / p46
http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_protect/---protrav/---migrant/documents/publication/wcms_344235.pdfhttp://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_protect/---protrav/---migrant/documents/publication/wcms_344235.pdf / available at 2016/1/7
Q) With the launch of the [Employment Permit System] EPS, Korea embarked a decade ago on a near irrevocable policy and societal shift. In many ways, the EPS has considerable strengths that merit its decade-long existence; it has contributed many positive practices and improvements to labor migration governance in the Asia region. It resuscitated government-to-government arrangements, offering a viable alternative to the abuse-ridden private recruitment agencies that so often determine the labor migration dynamics in the region. It has significantly reduced instances of migrant workers being trapped in fraud and debt. Instead, it has been widely acknowledged that the scheme has promoted transparent and accountable labor migration mechanisms and institutions. (UQ
Fertility rates of the immigrant population are high.
Prof. Lynch and Prof. Simon 2003/ James P. Lynch and Rita J. Simon / オーソリに関してはこちら参照
http://www.american.edu/spa/jlc/rita-simon-memoriam.cfmhttp://www.american.edu/spa/jlc/rita-simon-memoriam.cfm / Immigration the World Over: Statutes, Policies, and Practices / p258 /
https://books.google.co.jp/books?id=SeRuAAAAQBAJ&pg=PA258&lpg=PA258&dq=%22Fertility+rates+of+the+immigrant+population%22&source=bl&ots=7OrXF29M_R&sig=sEdocAppEVfguZBxQBKk9QWrWrY&hl=ja&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjpsOvihZbKAhVCkZQKHRfODl8Q6AEIGzAAhttps://books.google.co.jp/books?id=SeRuAAAAQBAJ&pg=PA258&lpg=PA258&dq=%22Fertility+rates+of+the+immigrant+population%22&source=bl&ots=7OrXF29M_R&sig=sEdocAppEVfguZBxQBKk9QWrWrY&hl=ja&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjpsOvihZbKAhVCkZQKHRfODl8Q6AEIGzAA#v=onepage&q=%22Fertility%20rates%20of%20the%20immigrant%20population%22&f=false / available at 2016/1/7
Q) Fertility rates of the immigrant population are higher than the native population in all of the countries for which data are available. (Omit) In 1975, the fertility rate for immigrants in Germany was roughly twice that of the native population —2.64 per 1000 to 1.34 per 1000. (UQ
Case for Extra in Kansai Affirmative OPU + OU debate section
4 37th of Heisei---which Baby-Boomer Generations become over 75. But if we will keep current staff-increasing pace, 380 thousands of nursing workers would be needed. In 25th Heisei, total number of nursing workers is 1.71 million including part-time workers, therefore 800 thousands of further workers are needed by 10 years after. Nursing field marks high turnover rate, so government now hurrying to secure enough number of nursing workers. (UQ