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Embed code for: Regional Framework Mike Alexander ARC
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“If you don’t like change…
you’re going to like irrelevancy even less.”
— General Eric Shinseki, former U.S. Army Chief of Staff
The future never rests.
So we can’t stop planning for it.
There are companies
that didn’t believe
the future when
they saw it.
What About other Technologies?
The Speed of Change
The Internal combustion engine shares with the commercialization of electricity the gold medal for the tow most important inventions of all time, by one of history’s remarkable coincidences invented within ten weeks of each other in the fall of 1879- Gordon
The most important skill moving forward is the
will and the ability to adapt as the future unfolds.
Rank in Total Population (Top 20) 1790-2010
The Rise and Fall of Metros
And Regions Matter
We are an International Economy
We’re facing ever-challenging natural resource complexity and environmental constraints
We are seeing unprecedented demographic and social changes.
Technological Innovations are
every facet of
Demographic & Social Change
The typical American born in 1900 lived to about 50.
The average lifespan in the U.S. is now approaching 80.
Housing Price Comparison
A Connected World
Unpredictability of Weather Conditions
& need for wise water management
Experts predict climate change will increase both the frequency and magnitude of extremes—we’ll have more droughts and more floods, more often.
Technological Innovations are
Autonomous Vehicles and Advanced Driver Assistance Systems
According to industry experts, 250 million “connected” cars will be on the road by the end of the decade, with 1 in 5 cars having wireless connectivity.
Autonomous Vehicles and the Sharing Economy
E-commerce will reshape retail & logistics
Every Click You Make is Magic
Robotics and machine learning
The Internet of Things
What will this mean for the Atlanta region?
You have to try to read the future before you can help write it.
What does the Community Think? Survey Results Released in 2015
Regional MetroQuest Survey with 7,000 respondents
Only 23% would answered they would not be comfortable transferring driving to an autonomous vehicle
65% indicate the State should support autonomous vehicle implementation
Policy Discussions Led to Testing of Scenarios in 2015 Incorporating the Technology
Potential per capita delay reductions range from 14% to 52.7%, depending on scenario
Strong policy support to continue to explore the viability of the technology
How does the change in social demographics change the way
What actions can we take at the local level?
We are the table.
We live in communities,
but we compete as Atlanta
And We are here to make the region work for
Needs such as:
Efficient mobility and connectivity
Walkable communities with access to services
Safe and reliable source of drinking water
Active, healthy longevity
Well-prepared workforce for today & tomorrow
Quality job opportunities
Security and emergency preparedness
Quality of Life
EVERYTHING IS LOCAL
The Atlanta region
is a national leader in water management
Chattahoochee River as Regional Asset
Atlanta Metro Water District
Metro Water District
10% drop in total water consumption despite a population increase of 1 million
Toilet Rebate Program
PER CAPITA WATER DEMAND
GALLONS PER CAPITA PER DAY
Gwinnett County Reclamation
Clayton County Wetlands
Comprehensive planning launched Atlanta as the gateway to the South
1930’s – 1940’s
MARTA South Line
Innovative use of transportation dollars for human-centered design
Emory Village — Before
Emory Village — After
City of Chamblee
Mike Alexander, AICP
Director, Center for Livable Communities
Welcome and thank you
If you don’t like change, you’re going to like irrelevancy even less. — General Eric Shinseki, former U.S. Army Chief of Staff
General Shinseki’s words have never rung truer. If you don’t like change, you’re going to like irrelevancy even less.
We can all see that the world is in flux. More complex, more interconnected and more interdependent. And, there are more variables at play than any other time in our history.
The only modern certainty is, in fact, change. Constantly challenging conventions and disrupting traditional ways of thinking.
The future never rests, so we can’t stop planning for it.
For us at ARC, we understand that you can’t stop planning for a future that never rests. You have to stay future-focused — always solving for what tomorrow may bring.
How? Scenario Planning is key. It’s a process that’s well-suited for today’s challenging environment. Business has relied on it for decades and it’s essential to the future of planning at ARC.
It allows us to see the world from different perspectives; chart options and enable better decision-making.
Think IBM. — IBM missed the internet because it was too focused on selling mainframe computers.
But the most important skill moving forward — for all of us — is the will and ability to adapt as the future unfolds.
Before I talk about regional planning, let me first explain why regions are important.
The top 100 metro regions in the U.S. – from New York-New Jersey to Modesto, California – occupy only 12% of the total land in the U.S. However, they contain 67% of the population, they conduct 65% of international trade and they generate 75% of the nation’s total economy. (Brookings, Metro Nation 2007)
In short, our national economy is built around the economies of these regions and their trading relationships. It is the future of metro regions like ours that will largely determine the future of this nation.
1. We’re seeing unprecedented demographic and social changes.
This may seem obvious as some of you may have seen your community’s demographics change almost overnight. The population is trending older and more diverse — and the trend is on the rise.
Meanwhile, we’re seeing rapid growth of our metropolitan regions, which have become the engines of our economy. People are migrating to where they have the greatest opportunity of improving their lives.
Local leaders are experiencing first-hand how demographic and societal shifts are changing the local landscape — and reshaping the character of communities in the process.
The typical American born in 1900 lived to about 50. The average lifespan in the U.S. is now approaching 80 and continues to increase.
What does this mean for the future? ARC forecasts that by 2040, one in five metro Atlanta residents will be age 65 or older, compared to one in ten today.
This poses a challenge to our health care system and requires re-thinking how our communities are designed to accommodate people of all ages and abilities.
For example, the average woman outlives her ability to drive by 10 years. The average man outlives his ability to drive by 7 years.
The study, released Monday by the National Bureau of Economic Research, says "16 and Pregnant" ultimately led to a 5.7% reduction in teen births in the 18 months after its premiere on TV.
We’re living longer than ever.
Orrenius NABE Sep13 final to send Impact of Immigration
2. We’re facing ever-challenging natural resource complexity and environmental constraints
As our region becomes more populated, demands for energy, food and clean water will only increase.
Living in a world with finite and changing— and in some cases diminishing — resources is challenging. Today, communities everywhere are realizing that localized, sustainable solutions are essential to growth and success in the future.
Intensity and Unpredictability of Weather Conditions
- The 3rd US National Climate Assessment, released in 2014, identified the Southeast region as exceptionally vulnerable to sea level rise, extreme heat events, hurricanes, and decreased water availability.
Total water use in the Atlanta region is expected to rise by more than 50 percent by 2050, as population increases by 3 million
[talking point here may reinforce that this increase is 25 percent less than what we projected just a few years ago, thanks to the region’s success in water conservation]
3. We’re experiencing accelerating technological breakthroughs that will impact every facet of daily life.
Business is absolutely driving this— but so is society. With each technological advancement comes new expectations for how things can be better moving forward.
This megatrend include major disruptors such as:
• Autonomous Vehicles / Advanced Driver Assistance Systems / Increased mobility (need stat or fact)
Tesla owners have driven more than 100 million miles using its autonomous “Autopilot” feature
According to industry experts, 250 million “connected” cars will be on the road by the end of the decade, with 1 in 5 cars having wireless connectivity. The market value of ADAS is expected to rise from $11.1 billion in 2014 to $200 billion by 2024.
Robotics and machine learning
Softwear — robots making clothes
E-commerce is on a trajectory to reshape retail and the logistics necessary to deliver products and services
U.S. e-commerce sales totaled $342 billion in 2015, accounting for more than a third of all retail sales growth (source: U.S. Department of Commerce)
U.S. e-commerce sales grew 15 percent in 2015. (source: U.S. Department of Commerce)
We’re constantly questioning our own assumptions about how the future will affect our region.
Autonomous vehicles are sure to play a key role in the future. But at what cost to
Atlanta’s largest industry — Logistics.
One lesson is clear:
You have to try to read the future — and believe it — before you can help write it.
So what are we seeing?
Here are just a few of the things we’re seeing through the lens of three key drivers of change.
ARC developed an on-line survey tool via MetroQuest to assess regional attitudes on Autonomous Vehicles.
With over 7,000 respondents, the results were surprising in several areas:
Only 23% indicated they would not be comfortable transferring driving to an AV
A major concern of staff – relating to the potential impacts of AV’s on “sprawl” – were reassuring. Only 32% of respondents indicated they would be “very” or “somewhat” likely to move. Of this 32% - only 14% of these indicated the would move “farther” from work.
Broad support was also expressed for state policies for AV’s – with 65% indicating the State should support AV implementation
Based on the national research, ARC tested through the travel demand model multiple scenarios on what the potential benefits would be if autonomous vehicle technologies were fully implemented by the year 2040. This example depicts what the potential impacts would be Annual Delay per person – reflecting congestion decreases ranging from 14% to nearly 53%.
The first scenario – “C” assumed that AV’s would result in nearly a 50% capacity increase on regional roadways; yielding significant decreases in delays per capita. In follow-up scenario tests, the impact of this capacity increase was changed to reflect potential impacts on behavior:
Scenario “CT” reflects a change by decreasing the “travel time disutility” – or the tendency of people to avoid driving the longer the trip. This results in additional travel and reduces the delay benefits due to additional systemwide travel.
Scenario “CTO” adds another dimension to the analysis – also assuming a reduction in vehicle operating costs due to the various technologies.
Finally – Scenario “CTOP” reflects changes to parking costs.
Based on these positive results, ARC continued a regional discussion emphasizing community dialogues.
They say robotics and machine intelligence may replace over half the jobs in the not-so-distant future. How will this affect our ability to offer basic human services for an estimated 3 million people here locally?
Of course, research, data analysis and modeling help us to forecast our most pressing challenges. And, enable local leaders to make more informed choices.
As the long-range planning agency for XX metro Atlanta counties, we’re constantly looking for bright spots and blind spots.
Our work helps our region be more dynamic, more responsive, and ultimately, more resilient because our plans will more closely mirror the realities of tomorrow.
We are the table.
As the regional convener, we bring people together—across geographic and political boundaries—for the greater good of the Atlanta region.
Our job is to bring the right people to the table — local governments, community organizations, elected officials and even concerned citizens.
We host and facilitate the critical conversations necessary to surface meaningful choices and enable more informed decision-making.
We live in communities, but we compete as Atlanta
Cities compete for business, talent, resources, dollars, reputation, etc.
Cities aren’t just competing regionally or nationally, but globally as well.
In today’s connected society, job opportunities and quality of life variables can be analyzed, weighted, ranked and reported for all the world to see.
Which means we need continual reinvention.
The decisions we make together moving forward, matter.
And for the region to work for everyone moving forward—not just the south—but the nation and the world around us.
We’re here to make the region work for everyone.
Making the region work for everyone—regardless of age, income, education, background, or ability.
People depend on us to make sure that our common needs are met —now and for the foreseeable future.
We believe there are essential ingredients for a vibrant quality of life.
ARC has developed The Regions Plan — a living 25 year blueprint that focuses on providing world-class infrastructure, ensuring the region has healthy, livable communities and building a competitive economy.
Endorsed and adopted by our Board — and updated every three years — it’s a holistic framework for guiding all the policies the ARC sees as essential.
The first ingredient for a vibrant quality of life is Mobility. We believe that infrastructure should connect centers of activity, improve mobility and enhance people’s livelihoods. It’s about increasing access and allowing the free flow of people, goods and services, ideas and resources.
Livability is about designing communities that promote and support a healthy and vibrant quality of life. It’s about creating walkable environments that allow people to thrive where they live, work and play. And, it’s about championing and providing services that promote “age-friendliness” and lifelong communities.
Prosperity involves nurturing the economic development that gives the region a competitive economy. It’s about developing a well-educated and skilled workforce as well as creating diverse and plentiful job opportunities.
All three of these ingredients are interrelated and interdependent — and are what enables our region to work for everyone.
Everything is local
Real change is local. Our plans for the future are only valuable if local leaders are willing to come to the table, understand what’s happening and what’s coming — and then adapt accordingly.
To accomplish anything of substance, everything must to done in partnership — and locally. Local needs. Local ideas. Local decisions.
We pride ourselves in serving the leadership of cities and counties across the region and aim to help provide the knowledge, resources and connections to make every community rise to its full potential.
Water is essential to our health and economic well-being, but most of us take it for granted.
We just want it to be there when we turn on the faucet.
But periods of drought are inevitable, as anyone who lived through our two-year drought back in 2007-08 can attest.
One thing we’ve come to understand firsthand is that relieving stress on a water ecosystem also requires a combination of science, data, education, incentives and a big dose of cooperation.
It’s about making wise choices and designing thoughtful water stewardship through sound strategies and investments.
Let me give you a couple of examples.
In 1973, the Metropolitan River Protection Act became law. It was a landmark effort to protect the river and created a 2000 foot buffer on either side of the river — from Lake Lanier’s Buford Dam down stream for 48 miles.
The law led to the creation of the Chattahoochee National Recreation Area and additional legislation protecting the river, the surrounding ecosystem, our water quality and property values up and down the river.
Perhaps its most important impact was changing mindsets about the importance of protecting our water.
Through this early effort, we’ve been able to cultivate an amazing “culture of conservation.”
So, let’s talk water conservation.
The Atlanta Metro Water District was created in 2001 and staffed by the ARC. It covers 15 counties, 92 cities and 50 public utilities. Over the years, the District has developed a suite of strategies to protect our water quality and safeguard the wise and efficient use of our water resources.
Since the strategies have been implemented, we’ve seen a 10% drop in total water consumption despite our population increasing by one million people.
Through our toilet rebate program, 110,000 old, inefficient toilets have been replaced — saving us nearly 1 billion gallons a year.
We’ve instituted “conservation pricing;” meaning if you use more water, you pay more. It’s a strong incentive for us all to be better water stewards.
And, we’ve initiated some very practical strategies like using new technologies to identify water leaks and ordinances for recycling water at car washes that have cut water use by 35%.
Through the conviction to pursue what’s right — and through thoughtful planning — our collective actions are making an amazing and measurable difference.
One of our overarching goals is securing clean, abundant and sustainable sources of water for our region — for now, and future generations.
And one of the best ways to safeguard and preserve our water sources is through reclamation. What that means is designing state-of-the-art systems to recapture water and return high-quality, treated wastewater and return it to the source to be used again.
For example, Gwinnett County has committed $1 billion to build a pipeline and facilities that will return up to 60 million gallons a day to Lake Lanier.
One of the Atlanta region's most innovative projects — one that has garnered national attention — is the Clayton County Water Authority’s Constructed Wetlands facilities. It actually looks to nature for a cost-effective way to treat wastewater.
The Authority constructed a wetlands habitat – a series of shallow ponds containing native plants. While birds and other wildlife call these wetlands home, wastewater is treated through a natural process involving plants, soils and bacteria. Over time, the wastewater is cleaned — treating more than 20 million gallons per day — and works its way back into area rivers and streams.
The wetlands have reduced dependence on water from nearby rivers and have reduced Clayton's need for additional water storage and withdrawals.
One of the greatest economic success stories in Atlanta’s history is our airport.
How many people know it used to be a racetrack?
That’s right, back in 1925, the City signed a lease on an abandoned car racetrack to turn it into an airport.
By the late 50’s, Pan Am inaugurated daily service across the Atlantic, the world shrank, air travel took off and our airport was widely regarded as the the busiest airport in the country.
In 1966, the ARC developed its first comprehensive plan for how the airport could handle future growth.
What we proposed would unlock the airport’s potential and create a valuable — and enviable — asset in the process
The Plan called for two things.
Moving the terminal from one end of the airport to “mid-field” — between runways. Most importantly, it proposed that two criss-crossing runways be replaced with parallel ones.
The advantage was that planes on diagonal runways had to take turns taking off. With parallel runways, it ensured almost continuous take-offs and landings. When a fourth parallel runway was added later, the combination catapulted Hartsfield-Jackson well beyond the air traffic loads of every other airport.
When the new terminal opened in 1980, it was the biggest in the world and cemented Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport’s place in THE global hub for air travel. In fact, the standard joke became that it didn’t matter if you were going to heaven or hell, you’d be traveling through Atlanta.
Another recommendation from the plan seemed like a afterthought. But it underscored our foresight. The plan pointed out that the proposed south line of MARTA would pass near the airport. And, that the feasibility of providing rapid transit service to the airport should be investigated. That seemed to have worked out well.
Fast forward 35 years and, again, the ARC is helping to expand the airport’s importance.
As an economic engine, the airport contributes $32 billion to our local economy and is directly responsible for 63,000 jobs.
But, today, the airport draws people here only to have them leave again. We need to give them reason to stay. As Atlanta competes with other cities and states to attract business and talent, we need to make the most of a prized asset.
How? By bringing like-minded people to the table — united around an amazing opportunity. Land owners, civic leaders, business executives and non-profits — all united around the idea of transforming the area around the airport into a vibrant urban environment. A hub — not just for transportation — but for commerce and economic development.
An LCI study helped fund a roundabout and new streetscapes in Emory Village.
Today, it’s a less congested and much safer area, bustling with shops and restaurants.
An LCI study helped the City of Chamblee re-imagine the area around the Chamblee MARTA rail station. The once-quiet area now bustles with a mix of housing and shops. It’s also become a great place to walk and bike, thanks to improved sidewalks and crosswalks and the construction of the Chamblee Rail Trail.
Not long ago, downtown Woodstock was a sleepy town on the region’s northern edge. The LCI program helped transform the area into a lively mix of shops, restaurants, offices and housing. For residents, a night on the town now means staying close to home and enjoying all of the new options.
Welcome and thank youn — is the Clayton County Water Authority’s Constructed Wetlands facilities. It actually looks to nature for a cost-effective way to treat wastewater.